Week 4 was kind of sad within NFL circles. Stars like JJ Watt and Odell Beckham Jr went down with serious injuries. QB’s like Eli, Big Ben, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer all look old and WASHED and the Dolphins and Jags both won games despite having QB’s that threw for less than 100 yards. Yet with all of that people continue to gamble on this league and I ask….why? The most obvious answer…..why not? Anyways as always, here come the picks.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
PANTHERS -3 over Eagles
Another reminder you can find my Thursday Night Football picks each and every Thursday afternoon on my Instagram page (https://www.instagram.com/p/BaKUNFeH539/?taken-by=sheldonalexander). I was on the Panthers because Cam had been ROLLING. The Panthers were at home and their front 7 is a PROBLEM. Heading into week 6, the Panthers led the league with 17 sacks and were up against an O-line missing its best player Lane Johnson. Last season the Eagles went 2-8 when Johnson was out of the lineup. But Thursday night changed when Luke Kuechly left the game with an apparent concussion. The Panthers D just ins’t the same without their star linebacker, plus Carson Wentz continues to show that he’s REAL. He took a lot of hits, made a ton of big plays and willed his team to a huge road victory. The Eagles are now 5-1 and have to be considered the best team right now in the NFC. Which is definitely reason to celebrate.
Bears +7 over RAVENS
I don’t think Chicago is as bad as you think and Trubisky is definitely an upgrade over Mike Glennon. In fact Trubisky might be an upgrade over the elite Joe Flacco. Did you know that Flacco has a passer rating of 71.0, which is second worst in the NFL behind DeShone Kizer? Yup, I’ll take the points.
TEXANS – 10.5 over Browns
I was tempted to take the points, but there’s just too much junk going on with the Browns right now. Why would you draft DeShone Kizer only to bench him by week 6? What did you expect was going to happen this season? It’s not like the Browns roster is filled with pro-bowlers on offence, so of course they were going to suck. But now the game plan to turn around the season is to bench Kizer for some dude named Hogan, whose first name isn’t Hulk or Hollywood?!?! Doesn’t make much sense does it? Shout out to ESPN’s Cian Fayey who dug this up, but of his 142 passing attempts this year, Kizer has lost 226 yards to receiver error (dropped passes etc). By comparison, Andy Dalton lost 169 yards over 563 attempts over the ENTIRE SEASON last year. To further emphasize the point, Aaron Rodgers led the league last year with 875 lost yards. Now he threw the ball about 700 times when you include the playoffs, but if Kizer threw the same number of passes and lost yards at the same rate as Rodgers, he would lose a whopping 1171 yards. But sure…blame Kizer when his best target is the immortal Kenny Britt. But back to Houston for a second and a shout out to the Astros for reaching the ALCS. But just so that we’re clear, kneeling for the anthem is disrespecting the flag, but this is totally cool right? Asking for a friend….
SAINTS -3.5 over Lions
The Saints are coming off the bye week and Drew Brees is completing 69% of his passes to go along with 8 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and a 108.3 passer rating. Meanwhile the Lions got beat up by the Panthers front 7 and now have to face a much improved Saints D that’s allowed 13 points over their last 2 games. It’s ok though Detroit fans, there’s still one hometown hero to believe in. And his name is Marshall Mathers, who WENT IN on your boy, Trumpito.
Packers -3 over VIKINGS
Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL with 13 TDs, while the Packers are scoring touchdowns on nearly 80% of their red zone trips. They still don’t have much of a running game and their defence is still just ok….but they have Aaron Rodgers…so I’ll be on the Packers most often than not when their favoured by less than a TD.
FALCONS -10.5 over Dolphins
So I really REALLY wanted to take the points here, based mostly on the hopes that Miami would turn things over to Matt Moore. How much more Jay Cutler does one have to see before doing what’s right? Also, the Falcons are good…just not as good as last year. Matt Ryan has 5 interceptions already this season, he didn’t throw his 5th pick until week 10 last year. So I wanted to take the points, but I can’t do it with a team whose QB looks like his wife forced him to come out of retirement and whose offensive line coach resigned after he filmed himself doing what looks like “the cocaina” in his office, before a meeting and then sent the video to a female “entertainer” who he was supposedly “dating” but would meet up with to use as a “human platter” for said “cocaina”….but she then decided release the video to the public because of “inequalities in the system”….and oh yeah…she’s pregnant, he’s married (with kids) and says she has more videos and photos of others. (read this if you want more info: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20990199/woman-posted-video-former-dolphins-coach-chris-foerster-speaks-publicly) . This story is PEAK 2017 and would make for a pretty crazy “Football Life: Miami” episode. But its also a reason for me to want nothing to do with the Dolphins for the rest of this season. But speaking of football in Miami, a man that knows a lot about those two things is Michael Irvin. My guy was pretty excited about last week’s win by “The U”
Patriots -9.5 over JETS
So the Jets and Patriots are both 3-2. But the Jets wins have come against the Browns, Dolphins and Jags. Meanwhile, the Pats are tied for 2nd in the NFL in “big plays” (w/ 25 plays of 20+ yards) and the Jets are tied for 4th for the most “big plays” allowed. Also of note…one team has Tom Brady and the other doesn’t. Another athlete who once called Boston home is Paul Pierce. The Truth has a new job as an NBA analyst for ESPN and let’s just say not everyone is buying into his Truths….
Oh the hot takes from PP don’t end there…here’s who he thinks will win this year’s NBA Championship
Niners +11 over WASHINGTON
The Niners are doing a GREAT job of tanking. They’ve lost 2 overtime games to remain in the hunt for that first overall pick in next year’s draft. All they could do now to mess things up by signing Kirk Cousins to a MASSIVE contract after this season. Then again, the Niners messed things up a while ago….
Seems like a good time to bring this up….
Crazy isn’t it? Anyways, moving on….
Rams +2.5 over JAGS
The Rams are good, they just weren’t ready for the Seahawks defense. But they were in the game and had a chance to win at the end, but Jared Goff appears to need a bit more time baking in the oven. The Rams had too many turnovers, but have won all 3 of their games this season when they end up even in the turnover battle. They also lead the league in big plays, while Todd Gurley is one of two players in the NFL with at least 100 touches this season. Which is a big deal because he’s averaging 5 yards per touch. Did I mention the Jags allow 146.6 rushing yards per game with is 2nd most in the league? Yup, I’m cool taking the Rams and the points. But before we move on… I know a Jaguar is not a Cougar, but its close enough because I need a reason to fit in this video of the BYU Cougarettes dancing with their mascot.
Bucs -2 over CARDS
So the Cards added Adrian Peterson who is averaging 2.4 yards per carry over the past 2 seasons. I guess its low risk, high reward and really what other options did they have. Oh….other than Chris Johnson, who gave us the ever important reminder that life comes at you fast
RAIDERS -3.5 over Chargers
Derek Carr is still questionable, but I get the feeling that he’ll play. And if he does I have no problem taking Oakland….but if not…yeeaaahh. On the flip side did you know the now 1-4 Chargers didn’t draft Deshaun Watson because Philip Rivers didn’t want them to?!?!?! LOLOL that’s amazing, but not as good as Marshawn Lynch’s new online show. The first episode is out on Facebook, but here’s the trailer.
CHIEFS -3 over Steelers
How is this line only 3 points? After calling out Antonio Brown and gassing himself up for being the leader of the team, Big Ben threw 5 picks and looked WASHED against the Jags. Meanwhile I have to keep riding Alex Smith until proven otherwise. The Chiefs lead the NFL in both yards per play and points per drive. As a Niners fan, I still can’t believe how much I’m backing Alex Smith this season. Well…at least until the playoffs….right?!?!?
BRONCOS -11.5 over Giants
The Broncos are the only NFL team ranking in the top 3 in both rushing offence and rushing defense. On the flipside, last week the Giants lost Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard and basically any other wide receiver that dared to step onto the field. OBJ and Marshall are done for the year and so is Ben McAdoo, Eli Manning and thus the rest of the New York Football Giants season. But back to our favourite New Yorkers, Desus and Mero who recently made a trip to Toronto to learn some “Toronto Slang”. Of note, this video is a clear indicator of the “2 Toronto’s”….as some of you will have NO IDEA of what they’re talking about and I’m guessing those same people have never been to Scarborough Town Centre. No judgement either way, just a statement of fact and what makes Toronto so special.
***TITANS -7 over Colts***
(UPDATE: 10:30 AM MONDAY MORNING)
It was finally announced that Marcus Mariota will play after this game was OTB for most of the week. And as I stated earlier I will easily take the Titans to cover a TD at home against the Colts. But then again….the way this week has gone so far…..ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!!!
Now, I had a tough go last week but with all of the high spreads I’m feeling confident again…maybe a little too confident. So confident in fact that I’ll offer up a money line parlay that you definitely SHOULD NOT DO. Texans, Falcons Pats, Broncos moneyline parlay is +103. Now if you’re feeling really frisky, add Washington and that jumps to +140. This just seems to easy right? And we all know Vegas is in the business of giving away free money right? Again, this is exactly why you shouldn’t gamble on football right? Don’t say I didn’t warn you….DO NOT DO THAT 5 TEAM MONEYLINE PARLAY…..
or at least be as happy as this dude working at a McDonald’s Drive-Thru
This Week 0-1
Last Week 6-7-1
This Season 43-34-1