I’m going to be totally honest here, I’m super nervous. I’m on a CRAZY run that includes being on the right side of the Chiefs coveing -7 on the last play of the game….
I’ve never seen anything like that and I’ve never been on a run quite like this either. So here we are. I finished last week 12-4. I’m 33-15 over my last 3 weeks and 37-26 on the year (yes quick math means I was 4-11 during week one…but I’m here to focus on the positives). I lived off going against what I believed to be “inflated” lines like the Pats -9 or the Falcons -8.5, but for week 5 Vegas is having none of that. Most of the lines this week hover around a FG. Hopefully I can keep the run going. And I think my best strategy is to take whoever I think will win the game straight up. But with that said, there’s still one thing that scares me. So far underdogs are 35-25-1 against the spread this season. I’m so tempted to just take all the dogs…but I don’t have the balls to do it.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
BUCS +4 over Patriots
So I was all in on the Bucs +5.5 and then late-afternoon it was announced that Gronk would miss the game with a thigh injury. No Gronk meant the line moved to +4 and I still stuck with the Bucs. Then I watched the game and Jameis Winston didn’t look good at all. He consistently missed wide open receivers or just threw up lame ducks that either fluttered out of bounds or over the heads of his receivers. In fact he appears to be the weak link on that team. Their D is alright. They can run the ball, they have great receivers and yet Jameis can’t seem to put it all together. But in the end, there’s really only one weak link here….your Boy Nick Folk for missing not one, not two, BUT THREE FG’S….super chumpy behaviour that led to the internet having a field day.
Also, just another reminder of how good Vegas is. The original spread was 5.5…and the Pats win by 5.
EAGLES -6.5 over Cardinals
Carson Wentz has looked good so far this season. A great sign for an offence is their production on 3rd down. The Eagles have converted on 51% of 3rd downs, which is 2nd best in the NFL this season. Speaking of “The City of Brotherly Love” the Eagles aren’t the only team to be excited about. Have you seen these Ben Simmons highlights? If the Sixers stay healthy, they’ll be super scary.
Bills +3 over BENGALS
So apparently there’s still no love for the Bills in Vegas? I know it took me a while too, but the Bills are legit. I know I can’t believe I just wrote that, but I think its true. Their new coach Sean McDermott has the team hella-motivated and their structure is simple. Play defence and run the ball. The Bills lead the NFL with 15 QB pressures per game while giving up just 4 offensive touchdowns so far this season. That should leave Andy Dalton running for his life, while on the flip side Tyrod Taylor appears to be settling in nicely. And the fact is, they aren’t asking him to do too much as he’s handing off the ball 55% of the time and I like that a lot….and so does Shady McCoy
LIONS -2.5 over Panthers
I’m not ready to buy into the Panthers because the Pats defence is trash. While the Lions have the league’s best turnover differential at +9 and have only allowed opponents to score on 12 of 47 drives this season which is 2nd in the NFL. Plus there’s just some bad juju around Cam this week. Yes what Cam said is stupid, but I’m also not going to cape for that racist reporter either. Both of those things are allowed to exist at the same time. Also, to the people who keep pushing the whole “why are we talking about racist tweets” angle…. well, this reporter still has to now show up to cover a league in which the majority of the players are black and she is not….but has this on her resume.
Its not changing the narrative, just adding more context.
Jaguars +9 over STEELERS
Can’t trust the Steelers with a line that’s this high, especially when Big Ben and Antonio Brown are out here beefing in front of everyone. Now Ben does a great job of being politically correct in his attempt to make us forget that he’s a jerk as well, but maybe this quote from former Steeler Ryan Clark tells us a little more about AB.
GIANTS -3 over Chargers
The Chargers going from west to east, while still maintaining their “road field disadvantage” of not really having a home. But the Giants despite losing have been covering spreads the last two weeks. Plus, this battle of 0-4 juggernauts reeeeeks of the Eli game where he rises from the dead and OBJ gives us a couple more viral TD celebrations. Plus if the Giants need any more help, maybe they should ask the newest member of the Knicks, cause Mr. Beasley doesn’t seem to be lacking much confidence these days.
Jets +1.5 over BROWNS
How are the Browns favoured yet again? I don’t get it at all. Of course I’m going with the Jets, but I also want to give a shout out to NYC’s own Desus and Mero. If you don’t know who these guys are then you’re losing at life, cause they’re THE NUMBER 1 SHOW IN LATE NIGHT…just ask them.
Niners +1 over COLTS
Shouts to my Niners because this season is playing out perfectly. They’re in every game but wind up losing and maintaining a great draft position. Real talk, you know what being in every game means right….THEY COVER SPREADS SON!!!!
DOLPHINS +3 over Titans
There have been some weird names on the list of QB’s that have thrown 4 TD’s this year including Blake Bortles, Trevor Seimian, Andy Dalton and DeShaun Watson….two of those games have come against the Titans. So even though we’re not sure yet if Mariota is going to play….I’m somehow taking this guy in the hopes of him adding his name to the list of blowing up the Titans defence.
Part of me isn’t even that mad at Cutler, its not his fault the Dolphins brought him out of retirement. Plus if I’m Cutler, at this point I’m just trying to make it back home to wifey safe and sound.
For the record, I was always Team Kristen over Team LC. Come on, don’t act like you didn’t watch Laguna Beach.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Ravens
So Derrick Carr practiced on Thursday so I guess there’s a slight chance that he could play. But to be honest, I think EJ could take down the battered and bruised Ravens at this point all on his own.
RAMS -1 over Seahawks
Much like the Bills, I believe in the Rams. We know they have great skilled players, but the numbers show the Rams are tied for the most big plays in the league with 23 plays of at least 20 yards. I also love how they use Tavon Austin. They’re such a fun team to watch. Sean McVay is doing big things as the youngest head coach in NFL history and a win over the Seahawks would go a long way towards winning the division. Speaking of young prodigies….Auston Matthews had another dope opening night performance for your Toronto Maple Leafs. Now we all remember what happened last year in his NHL debut, but Sens goalie Craig Anderson revealed yet another level of GANGSTER shown by Young Auston
Packers +2.5 over COWBOYS
Are the Cowboys good? I definitely don’t think their defence is, especially without Sean Lee. People are questioning if Dez is still among the top WRs in the game and Zeke still doesn’t seem to have the same burst as last season. And that’s not a good look for ‘Merica’s team. Also not a good look….is the Packers on 10 days rest.
Chiefs -1 over TEXANS
Are the Chiefs the best team in football right now? As crazy as it sounds, I think the answer is yes. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Alex Smith is Ballin. Hill and Hunt are a crazy dynamic duo that sounds as if it could spin off into a CBS cop drama that airs after one of those NCIS shows. But after that cover on Monday night, I have to ride with the Chiefs this week…plus Travis Kelce with the dance moves…
Vikings -3 over BEARS
Dalvin Cook is out for the year, paving the way for the RETURN OF ADRIAN PETERSON!!! But until then, my fantasy team will settle for Latavius Murray. Not sure how this is going to work, but I’m riding with the Vikings D cause I’m not ready to jump on the Mitch Trubisky bandwagon. Plus “the only Mitchell we acknowledge, is Marner”
Again, I’m on a roll right now which makes me terrified heading into this week. A week in which I’ve shown MAD love to the Bills, Rams and Alex Smith…damn 2017 is crazy. But as they say shooters shoot and hopefully I’ll do better than this dude.
#HappyShmoneyDancing my friends
This Week 0-1
Last Week 12-4
This Season 37-27