NFL FIX: WEEK 5 PICKS & THE DEATH OF THE SHMONEY DANCE?

lacy

I’m in need of a bounce back week.  Last week hurt, it really did.  Week 4 started off well, but then fell apart as soon as the 4pm games hit.  I thought the Saints and Pats could salvage the week for me, but you all know by now how that ended.  That’s the thing about picking every single game against the spread, its just not easy.  Those weeks will  happen. But I love challenges (and maybe embarrassment as well) so I’m going to keep going and get back above .500.  Things are so crazy that there’s talk of whether or not this is the beginning of the end for Tom Brady?  Personally I think it’s ridiculous.  The Patriots have no weapons at the skill positions.  Gronk doesn’t appear to have his same level of Beast Mode anymore.  Their running game is average at best.  Their o-line appears to be missing Logan Mankins more than they anticipated and despite how hard they try, Julian Edleman is not Wes Welker (although I do wonder if Edleman bumps Trinidad James while he’s sweatin’ WOOOOO).  To me this isn’t Brady’s fault, he just needs more people.  But then again maybe I’m just rattled by our recent sports reality that includes a retired Derek Jeter, an aging Kobe Bryant and way too many headlines about LeBron James’ hairline (seriously just stop already, who cares).  This all really, REALLY makes me feel old.  But either way, lets get to the picks. And cheers to a bounce back week.

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS 

PACKERS (-9) over Vikings 

The Thursday night blowout trend continued and I must say that due to my horrible week 4 showing I was hesitant to start Shmoney Dancing before the 4th quarter.  But thanks to Mr. Ponder (shout out to Samantha by the way) it was another one of those instances when we quote a former Vikings legend and say “Straight Cash Homey”.  So far the scores for the Thursday night games have been as followed: 36-16, 26-6, 56-14, 45-14, 42-10 with the home favorites coming in at 4-1.  Shmoney Dancers take note.

 Falcons (+4) over GIANTS 

As mentioned above, the home favourites are 4-1 in blowout wins on Thursday night.  The only game that didn’t pass that test was last week when Eli Manning pulled an Eli Manning and had one of the best QB fantasy weeks of the season, right when most of his fantasy owners gave up and dropped him from their team.  I’ve seen this Eli-train before.  Right when you jump on board he goes off the rails again.  I’m not ready to jump on board yet and so I’m taking the points.

Ravens (+3.5) over COLTS 

I can’t lie, I’m taking the Ravens and the points only because I’m obsessed with Steve Smith’s trash talking ablities.

LIONS (-7) over Bills 

So this was the plan all along in Buff City? To have a quick hook on EJ and then hand over the keys to Kyle Orton? I can’t put faith in a brain trust that puts their faith in Kyle Orton.  Can’t do it, won’t do it.  The only thing that makes me nervous is that Megatron is banged up and may not play.  Other than that, I’m going to ride with the Lions

 Bears (+3) over PANTHERS 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offence just needed to relax and then everything would be ok.  The problem is that the Bears ran into the Pack on the exact week that they were able to put it all together.  I still think the Bears are a good team and they’re also a bit healthier this week.  While the same can’t be said for the Panthers who are coming off of back to back beat downs.

Browns (+2) over TITANS 

Jake Locker should be back, but the stink of Charlie Whitehurst lives on for one more week.

Texans (+6.5) over COWBOYS 

Cowboys are a public team and so the spread shouldn’t be this high.  DeMarco Murray is BEASTING and I think they’ve finally figured out how to put Romo in positions to succeed.  So I think the Cowboys win, but the Texans cover.

Steelers (-6) over JAGS 

The Steelers lost at home to the Bucs.  If they don’t blow out the Jags, I’m done with them.  The Jags have gotten blown out in every game this season, while being outscored 152-58.

EAGLES (-6.5) over Rams 

Austin Davis and the Rams are coming off a bye week and they remain a frisky team to look out for on those dreaded back door covers.  But I’m riding with the Eagles offence.  I know they struggled last week against the Niners D (which I will admit, I’ve underrated this season) but I look at the Eagles like I do the Packers offence, that they’ll have trouble against the top defences (Niners, Seahawks etc) but they’ll roll against everyone else.  Eagles roll as their D will remain hungry after a big game last week.

SAINTS (-10) over Bucs 

Ok here’s the thing.  Yes my rule is to take the points whenever there’s a double digit spread.  BUT, the Saints were embarrassed last week on the road and now they return home where they ball out.  The Bucs won last week because the Steelers offence wasn’t good enough to put them away when they had a chance and in fact even dropped the game clinching touchdown that led to the eventual game winner for Tampa.  Drew Brees and company at home will not have those problems and will roll early and often.

BRONCOS (-7.5) over Cards 

If not for a ridiculous overtime rule, the Broncos would have covered on the road IN SEATTLE and pretty much, no one does that.  So with that said, how can I not take the Broncos AT HOME to a team that will most likely play the same styled D to try and stop the Denver ‘O’.  I would honestly take the Cards, but the thought of being pissed on Sunday for taking Drew Stanton on the road against a Manning not named Eli would make me so sad.

NINERS (-5) over Chiefs

Under no circumstances will I ever take Alex Smith to beat my Niners.  Plus all of these people talking about the Niners being better off with Alex Smith instead of Colin Kaepernick need to just stop.  Honestly, it’s not that cute anymore.  It’s just annoying because no one actually believes it.  I’m out on the Chiefs, but I’m all in on KC’s other team. The Royals.  Anytime a dude steals a base and then does the Young Joc “It’s Goin’ Down”, I’m in.

And please stop calling it the Vince Carter.  That’s like saying John Cena made up the Tony Yayo dance.  Do your research.

CHARGERS (-6.5) over Jets

This Geno Smith thing is going to blow up in Rex’s face.  Geno’s swearing at fans, throwing hail mary passes almost into the seats, it’s getting silly now.  It’s so obvious that the better solution right now to win games is with Michael Vick, but I think they’re afraid of the circus it will cause if they make the move now.  In the meantime, no way would I take Geno to cover anything less than 10 the amount  in San Diego.

Bengals (-1) over PATS

As I mentioned above, everyone’s been waiting for the Pats offence to wake up, but I just don’t think they have the weapons.  LaFell looks like maybe he can give the offence some life and maybe Dobson can provide something after being benched.  But until we see one of those things prove themselves to be true, for the first time in a long, LONG time…I just can’t ride with Brady and Belichick in a primetime game.  But in the end, never forget that Tom Brady stays winning in the game of life.

Seahawks (-7) over THE WASHINGTON’S

If Eli was able to ball against Washington’s D, then what is Russ going to do?  If Washington’s offence looked that bad against the G-Men, then what do you think Sherman and “Dem Boys” are going to do to Eli?  Seahawks roll #ShmoneyDance

I will bounce back this week and there will be Shmoney Dancing in Week 5, because no matter how hard these poor golfers tried, they can’t ruin the movement.  And damn, did they try to ruin this thing that was so much fun.

Has someone shown this to Bobby Shmurda yet?

Happy Shmoney Dancing!!!

Against the Spread:

THIS WEEK: 1-0

LAST WEEK: 5-8

SEASON: 30-32

Straight up WINNERS:

THIS WEEK: 1-0

LAST WEEK: 6-7

SEASON: 38-24

#OnBlast

@ShelAlexander

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